The Canadian population of American Black Duck is at least moderately well monitored by three programs. The Eastern Waterfowl Survey (EWS) targets the population best and has high precision, but its reliability for assessing the long-term trend is medium because it only began in 1990. The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides a longer trend series, since 1970, and also has medium reliability, in this case because of intermediate precision, but overall is a better basis for long-term analysis. The continental Christmas Bird Count (CBC) results also offer high coverage, but only moderate precision and its methods are less standardized than the other two programs. The BBS shows a moderate decrease of 36% since 1970, with most of the decline occurring in the 1970s. Declines have been greatest in central and southern Ontario and Quebec. The EWS shows little change in the population relative to 1990, aligning well with the BBS trend over that period. The CBC indicates a moderate increase of 48% over the same period. Because of the variability among trends and lack of any sources with high reliability, confidence in the status of moderate decrease is low.

The goal for American Black Duck is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that American Black Duck is currently below its goal range, but it has shown a slight increase over the past decade. Analysis of recent trends and potential growth rates suggests that American Black Duck could reach its population goal by 2050 with the support of conservation action. This goal is more aspirational than that set for the species by the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), because it recognizes the long-term decline in the population before the Eastern Waterfowl Survey (EWS) was initiated, but it does not detract from the value of the EWS in guiding harvest management in relation to the NAWMP goal.