The Canadian population of Hermit Thrush is best monitored by the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), which is well-suited to detecting the species and has high precision, although coverage of the northern parts of the breeding range is limited. The national trend shows a slight decline during the 1970s, followed by a long period of relative stability, and then another downward turn beginning around 2013, resulting in current levels being 54% below those in the early 1970s. Conversely, the continental trend for the Christmas Bird Count (CBC) shows more fluctuation over time but overall a moderate increase of 47% over the same period. Although the CBC samples a larger proportion of the Canadian population, it is less standardized, and the trend may be inflated by a greater number of individuals remaining in the United States in the winter rather than continuing into Mexico. However, the discrepancy in trends is enough to result in low confidence that the BBS trend of a large decrease is accurate. Trends vary among regions that have at least medium coverage by the BBS, with moderate decreases throughout most of western Canada, and little change in most of the east. The greatest rate of decline is in the northern boreal region, which also supports the largest part of the breeding population, but where reliability of results is low because of limited survey coverage.

The goal for Hermit Thrush is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that Hermit Thrush is currently below its goal range and continuing to decline. Analysis considering the historical population loss and recent trend suggests that it is unlikely that the goal can be met by 2050, so the interim target is to reach 65% of the goal by 2050. Achieving this target, and ultimately reaching the national goal for this species, will require deliberate conservation action.