The Canadian population of Thick-billed Longspur is best monitored by the Breeding Bird Survey, which samples much of the breeding range and has medium precision. The national trend shows a steady decline since the early 1970s, steepest in the 1990s, but still ongoing despite the remaining population being at only 2% of 1970s levels.

The goal for Thick-billed Longspur is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Thick-billed Longspur is far below its goal range, and its decline is ongoing. This trend will need to stabilize before the population can begin to rebound, and it is not realistic for the goal to be met by 2050. Based on analysis of the historical population loss and potential growth rates, the interim target is to reach 25% of the goal by 2050. Achieving this target, and ultimately reaching the national goal for this species, will require ambitious and long-term conservation action. This is consistent with, but somewhat more specific than, the draft Recovery Strategy under the Species at Risk Act, which aims for a positive population trend over a 30-year period while maintaining the current breeding distribution of the species.