The Canadian population of Mountain Bluebird is monitored best by the Breeding Bird Survey, which samples a moderate portion of the breeding range and has high precision. The national trend illustrates a roughly 10-year cycle, with lows typically around the end of each decade. However, there has been an overall declining trend, particularly steep over the past decade, with its current abundance the lowest recorded to date, and 60% below the early 1970s. Regionally, the patterns differ somewhat. In the Prairies, numbers accelerated rapidly from the early 1980s to mid-1990s, but have declined significantly ever since. In contrast, there has been little change over the long term in central British Columbia and the southern Rockies.

The goal for Mountain Bluebird is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that Mountain Bluebird is currently below its goal range and continuing to decline. Analysis considering the historical population loss and recent trend suggests that it is unlikely that the goal can be met by 2050, so the interim target is to reach 60% of the goal by 2050. Achieving this target, and ultimately reaching the national goal for this species, will require deliberate conservation action.