The Canadian population of Northern Shoveler is at least moderately well monitored by three programs. The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) and Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) both offer highly reliable trend estimates for Northern Shoveler, but the WBPHS is considered the primary source because it is particularly well suited to monitoring waterfowl and focuses on the core of the breeding range. The continental Christmas Bird Count trend also provides some insight, but is less reliable for the Canadian population, as many of the individuals in that sample are from the United States population. The WBPHS shows a 29% increase relative to 1970, which is near the upper limit of what is classified as little change; the BBS trend of 37% is only slightly higher, at the lower end of what is considered as a moderate increase. The 287% increase indicated by the CBC suggests that the US breeding population may have increased more rapidly than the Canadian population. Overall, there is high confidence that the population has at least remained stable relative to the early 1970s, and may have increased.

The goal for Northern Shoveler is to maintain a population of at least 1.5 million individuals, within the area sampled by the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey. This is based on the North American Waterfowl Management Plan's goal of 2,515,000 individuals across the survey's full range of the Waterfowl Breeding Population Habitat Survey, but adjusted to reflect the average proportion of the breeding population in Canada (61%). Data from the Canadian portion of the range indicate that Northern Shoveler is currently within its goal range.