Lincoln Estimates of Population Size

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Project name: The State of Canada's Birds

Goals : Population trend and abundance monitoring . Primary metric used in many international harvest management plans for Arctic-nesting geese.

Dataset summary : Lincoln estimates represent population abundance during the goose banding season (July-August). BBO data request: https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/bird-banding/how-to-request-data.html#toc0 Canadian National Harvest Survey: https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/bird-surveys/waterfowl/national-harvest.html U.S. Migratory Bird Hunting Activity and Harvest Reports: https://www.fws.gov/library/collections/migratory-bird-hunting-activity-and-harvest-reports

Year started : 1960

Years (comments) : Ongoing

Season(s) and frequency : Lincoln estimates calculated annually from band recoveries and harvest estimates in Canada and the USA.

Frequency : Annually

Geographic area covered : Canada and Alaska for some species.

Primary species covered : Primarily Arctic-nesting geese.

Field methods : Population estimates and trends in abundance calculated from band recovery data and total harvest estimates using Lincoln methods (Lincoln, 1930; Alisauskas, Drake, and Nichols 2009).

Analysis methods : Harvest estimates are downward adjusted to reflect documented bias (see Padding and Royle, 2012). Recovery rates are adjusted for band reporting probabilities found in Arnold et al. (2019). Estimates rely on band recovery data. To ensure there is adequate time for hunting season recoveries to appear in the BBO data repository, analyses focus on years 1-2 years prior the most recently available data.