Three surveys provide insight into the status of Black Scoter in Canada, each of which have different strengths and weaknesses. Overall, the Christmas Bird Count (CBC) likely best reflects national status, as it is the only program that monitors a broad proportion of the range and has high precision in its trend estimates, although it is less standardized than some other surveys. The Eastern Waterfowl Survey (EWS) provides limited coverage of the Eastern population starting in 1990, and reliability is low because of poor precision. The British Columbia Coastal Waterbird Survey (BCCWS) has medium reliability for the western population, but only started in 1999. 

The continental CBC trend shows a fairly steady decline since 1970, amounting to a large decrease of 65%. The EWS shows a large increase of over 1600% since 1990, but there is broad uncertainty around this estimate, given the low precision of the trend. The Pacific Coast CBC trend shows a long-term trend of -94%, similar to the -92% indicated by the BCCWS, allowing for high confidence that the Western population has undergone a large decrease.

The national goal for Black Scoter is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the continental analysis of the Christmas Bird Count. Trend data show that this population is currently below its goal range, but has been relatively stable over the past decade. Analysis considering the historical population loss and recent trend suggests that it is unlikely that the goal can be met by 2050, so the interim target is to reach 70% of the goal by 2050. Achieving this target, and ultimately reaching the national goal for this species, will require deliberate conservation action.

The goal for the western population of Black Scoter is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Christmas Bird Count analysis for the Pacific Coast. Trend data show that this population is far below its goal range and continuing to decline. The trend will need to stabilize before the population can begin to rebound, and it is not realistic for the goal to be met by 2050. Based on analysis of the historical population loss and potential growth rates, the interim target is to reach 25% of the goal by that year. Achieving this target, and ultimately reaching the national goal for this species, will require ambitious and long-term conservation action.

The goal for the eastern population of Black Scoter is to remain at or above its average population level from 1970 to 2022, based on the Eastern Waterfowl Survey. Trend data show that this population is currently within its goal range.