The best source of information on the population status of Black-throated Gray Warbler in Canada is the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), which has high reliability as it provides good coverage of the Canadian range and has high precision in its trend. BBS data indicate that the Canadian population more than doubled from the early 1970s to late 1980s, but dropped back down to 1970 levels by 2000 and has continued to decline since then, to 40% below 1970 levels.

The goal for Black-throated Gray Warbler is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that Black-throated Gray Warbler is currently below its goal range and continuing to decline. Despite this, analysis of recent trends and potential growth rates suggests that Black-throated Gray Warbler could reach its population goal by 2050, but only if timely conservation action is taken.