The best source of information on the population status of Clay-colored Sparrow is the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), which samples most of the breeding range, and has high precision around its trend estimates. BBS data indicate fluctuations over roughly 20-year periods, but with an overall long-term decline that has been accelerating over the past decade, and has resulted in a population that is currently 48% below early 1970s levels. There is some regional variability in trends, with long-term increases in British Columbia and the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Lowlands at one extreme, but moderate to large decreases throughout the Prairie provinces, and into the southern Northwest Territories, as well as Central Ontario and Quebec.

The goal for Clay-colored Sparrow is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that Clay-colored Sparrow is currently below its goal range and continuing to decline. Analysis considering the historical population loss and recent trend suggests that it is unlikely that the goal can be met by 2050, so the interim target is to reach 85% of the goal by 2050. Achieving this target, and ultimately reaching the national goal for this species, will require deliberate conservation action.