The Canadian population of Northern Fulmar is tracked best by the Seabird Colony Monitoring Program (SCMP), which has documented a long-term decline of 70% from 1973 to 2018 at Prince Leopold Island. At a broader scale, periodic monitoring of three colonies at Buchan Gulf, Scott Inlet, and Cape Searle on eastern Baffin Island has shown a roughly 80% decline from 155,000 breeding pairs in the 1973 to 36,500 pairs in 2018 (Unknown reference #2957). SCMP data from the smaller Atlantic population also show a 70% decline, although over a shorter period, from 1986 to 2016. Overall, all available evidence agrees that the Canadian population has experienced a large decrease relative to the 1970s.

The goal for Northern Fulmar is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Seabird Colony Monitoring Program. Trend data show that Northern Fulmar is currently below its goal range and continuing to decline. Analysis considering the historical population loss and recent trend suggests that it is unlikely that the goal can be met by 2050, so the interim target is to reach 55% of the goal by 2050. Achieving this target, and ultimately reaching the national goal for this species, will require deliberate conservation action.