The Canadian population of Scarlet Tanager is best monitored by the Breeding Bird Survey, which is well-suited to detecting the species, samples most of the Canadian breeding range, and has high precision. The national trend shows a steep decline in the first half of the 1980s, and then a more gradual secondary decrease continuing throughout the 1990s. Since then the population has been largely stable to marginally increasing, but remains nearly 40% below 1970 levels. Trends vary regionally, with only central Ontario and Quebec largely reflecting the national pattern. In the Maritimes, there has been a large long-term decline relative to 1970 despite an increase during the early 1980s. Conversely, in southern Ontario and Quebec there have been some inter-annual fluctuations but overall the population has shown little change compared to 1970.

The goal for Scarlet Tanager is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that Scarlet Tanager is currently below its goal range, but it has shown an increase over the past decade. Analysis of recent trends and potential growth rates suggests that Scarlet Tanager could reach its population goal by 2050 with the support of conservation action.