The Canadian population of Sprague's Pipit is best monitored by the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), which samples most of the breeding range, is highly suitable for detecting the species, and has long-term trend estimates with high precision. The BBS indicates a 91% population loss since 1970. Although declines were greatest from the 1970s to the early 1990s, the rate of decrease has accelerated again recently, with a 51% reduction over the past decade. Declines have been similarly steep across all three Prairie provinces. The continental Christmas Bird Count results, which also largely reflect the Canadian breeding population, show a comparable long-term loss of 86% since 1970, but only a 17% decline over the past decade.

The goal for Sprague's Pipit is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that Sprague's Pipit is far below its goal range and continuing to decline. The trend will need to stabilize before the population can begin to rebound, and it is not realistic for the goal to be met by 2050. Based on analysis of the historical population loss and potential growth rates, the interim target is to reach 25% of the goal by 2050. Achieving this target, and ultimately reaching the national goal for this species, will require ambitious and long-term conservation action. This goal is higher than the one outlined in the Recovery Strategy under the Species at Risk Act, which is to increase the distribution and abundance of Sprague's Pipit to at least the mean abundance from 1980-1989 (Environment Canada, 2012). That reference period was chosen because agricultural census data showed that the loss of natural grasslands to agriculture stabilized during the mid-1980s, and that decade was characterized by a mix of wet and dry periods.