The Canadian population of American Kestrel is best monitored by the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), which has high precision in its trends for this species, although coverage of the northern parts of the breeding range is limited. The national trend shows a modest increase throughout the 1970s, but then a largely declining trajectory ever since, with current levels 49% below those in 1970. The greatest losses have been in central and southern British Columbia and the Rockies, and in southern parts of Ontario and Quebec, with a cumulative decline of over 75% in these regions. The smallest decrease has been in the Prairies, with a 28% reduction in abundance relative to 1970. Many long-term trends from the Raptor Population Index and Canadian Migration Monitoring Network also show moderate to large declines, as do breeding bird atlases in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes.

The goal for American Kestrel is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that American Kestrel is currently below its goal range and continuing to decline. Despite this, analysis of recent trends and potential growth rates suggests that American Kestrel could reach its population goal by 2050, but only if timely conservation action is taken.