Limited data are available on trends for American Three-toed Woodpecker in Canada. Both the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Christmas Bird Count (CBC) have limited coverage of its range, and therefore are considered to be of low reliability. Aside from most of the range being poorly surveyed, trend interpretation is complicated by the tendency of the species to shift its distribution in response to insect infestations and burned forests. The CBC is considered marginally more reliable for this species because detectability tends to be greater in winter. It shows a moderate and fairly steady decrease, amounting to a cumulative decline of 45% since 1970. Conversely, BBS data show an increase of nearly 200% over the same period. Because of this discrepancy, confidence in the moderate decrease is very low.

The goal for American Three-toed Woodpecker is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on Canadian data from the Christmas Bird Count. Trend data show that American Three-toed Woodpecker is currently below its goal range, but its rate of decline has slowed down over the past decade. Analysis of recent trends and potential growth rates suggests that American Three-toed Woodpecker could reach its population goal by 2050 with the support of conservation action.