The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides the best data on the Canadian population of Baird's Sparrow, as it samples most of the breeding range and has high precision in its estimates, although year-to-year nomadism complicates assessment of trends, especially over short time periods. From 1970 to the late 1990s, fluctuations were particularly notable; from 2000 to 2018 the population remained relatively stable at lower levels, but then started sharply declining again.

The goal for Baird's Sparrow is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that Baird's Sparrow is currently below its goal range and continuing to decline. Analysis considering the historical population loss and recent trend suggests that it is unlikely that the goal can be met by 2050, so the interim target is to reach 50% of the goal by 2050. Achieving this target, and ultimately reaching the national goal for this species, will require deliberate conservation action. This objective is more ambitious than the objective in the proposed Management Plan under the Species at Risk Act, which is to achieve a stable population by 2041, then increase back to 2005 levels (ECCC, 2021).