The best source of information on the population status of Black-throated Blue Warbler is the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), which has high reliability because it samples a large proportion of the breeding range and has high precision. BBS data show that the Canadian population nearly doubled from the mid-1980s to late 1990s, and has fluctuated around that level ever since. At a regional level, the long-term increase has been around 70% in central Ontario and Quebec; throughout the rest of the Canadian range there have been large long-term increases ranging from 128% in the southern Boreal forest to 172% in the Maritimes.

The goal for Black-throated Blue Warbler is to remain at or above its recent population level, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that Black-throated Blue Warbler is currently within its goal range.