Trends are difficult to estimate for Lark Bunting because the species is highly nomadic, with the core of the population shifting around the grasslands of North America in response to annual variations in climate, particularly rainfall. The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides the best data on annual abundance, as it provides good coverage of the breeding range and is well-suited to detecting the species. However, its precision is only medium because of the interannual fluctuations, notably occasional peak years in which abundance in Canada can be more than an order of magnitude greater than in low years. Nonetheless, the BBS data show a substantial and rapid decline from the 1970s to the early 1980s, a slight rebound in the early 1990s, and then fluctuation around low levels ever since, although overall still declining further. The trend is largely similar to the 94% decline in the overall North American population.

The goal for Lark Bunting is to increase the population to the level it was at in the early 1970s, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that Lark Bunting is far below its goal range and its population decline is ongoing. The trend will need to stabilize before the population can begin to rebound, and it is not realistic for the goal to be met by 2050. Based on analysis of the historical population loss and potential growth rates, the interim target is to reach 25% of the goal by that year. Achieving this target, and ultimately reaching the national goal for this species, will require ambitious and long-term conservation action.