The best source of information on the population status of Virginia Rail is the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). The BBS is road-based, does not use playback, and takes place in mornings, whereas Virginia Rail is most vocal at night. These attributes limit the potential for detecting this species, but the BBS is the only source that provides long-term coverage across its Canadian range, and overall its reliability is considered medium. The national trend shows substantial growth from the late 1980s to early 2010s, with a current level just over double what it was in 1970, a large increase. There is considerable regional variation, with large increases of 104% to 244% among the Bird Conservation Regions in British Columbia and the southern Prairies, compared to little change in central and southern Ontario and Quebec. The Marsh Monitoring Program (MMP) provides additional data for southern parts of Ontario and Quebec, where it samples the population more effectively, but only since 1995 and 2004, respectively. Over these shorter periods, there have been moderate decreases of 26 to 29%. An increase in southern Ontario since the early 2010s is likely at least partly because of rising Great Lakes water levels, which increase breeding habitat quality for this species in Great Lakes coastal wetlands (Tozer et al., 2024).

The goal for Virginia Rail is to remain at or above its recent population level, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Trend data show that Virginia Rail is currently within its goal range.