The Canadian population of Golden-winged Warbler is best monitored by the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), which samples a large proportion of the range and has high precision, but its reliability is only medium because there is potential for misidentification by ear (with Blue-winged Warbler). The national trend shows a substantial increase from the early 1980s to mid-1990s, followed by a similarly rapid decrease over the following decade. Since then, the population has remained relatively stable, around 50% above 1970s levels. Trends differ regionally, with an ongoing decline since the mid-1990s in southern Ontario, whereas the smaller population in southern Manitoba has increased greatly from the late 1990s to around 2015 and has remained relatively stable in recent years. However, some of the apparent increase in Manitoba may be a reflection of increasing survey effort.

The goal for Golden-winged Warbler is to remain at or above its average population level from 1970 to 2022, based on the Breeding Bird Survey. This is largely consistent with the Species at Risk Act recovery goal of maintaining self-sustaining populations with a total of at least 35,000 pairs in Canada (ECCC, 2016). Trend data show that Golden-winged Warbler is currently within its goal range.